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Months of Inventory (MOI*) was well in seller's market territory most of 2021 for Vancouver attached homes and apartments. One of the hottest markets was the detached East Vancouver house market while detached Vancouver Westside houses were mostly in a balanced market during that same period. MOI fell between February and March of 2022 but began to rise in April. It should be noted that the attached and apartment markets have remained in seller's markets and appear likely to remain relatively strong.
News of inflation and forecast rising interest rates where likely the cause of rise MOI via reduced sales volumes and increased active listing volumes.
Active listing volumes have been rising since the start of 2022 and they may continue to do so for the next several months.
Sales volumes begun trending downwards in April as well. With dramatic interest rate hikes and more increases forecast, many people are worried about what will happen in the Vancouver Real Estate Market and are delaying buying. This may or may not prove to be a mistake. Inflation is up but the job market is also super hot. Cenntral banks' willingness to push interest steeply up are a fairly good indicator that they beleive the economy can handle it. With interest rates rising and money supply contracting we are unlikely to see prices rise substantially but with most mortgage holders being well employed, we are also not likely to see prices plummet either.
Vancouver Westside sale prices have been slowly trending upwards since early 2020 but have still not reached their previous high points in 2016. The 2016 market was driven by more foreign capital than we have seen in this market. Vacancy taxes may have curbed some of this demand. Anecdotally, a client of mine in Shanghai has suggested that the Chinese handling of Covid (severe lockdowns and huge numbers of business failures) may see a flight of capital to safer harbours - like Vancouver. Many Canadian citizens and permanent residents of Canada live in China because there have been great earning opportunities there. With an extremely stagnant economy in China there may be little incentive to stay there in the near term.
Sale prices for East Vancouver detached homes, by contrast, rose more steaply and past the previous 2016 high points in early 2021. The new May 2022 Eastside HPI sale price may remain a high point for some time. I beleive that the East Vancouver house market has been largly driven by local people seeking homes to live in. The top of this market may have already been coming prior to rising interest rates as buyer's were reaching qualification limits.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
It has been a wild ride for the Vancouver real estate market over the past year. In January 2020, after nearly 2 years of protracted price declines the market was ready for a rebound. January through March 2020 foretold a hot spring market. When the Covid-19 pandemic took centre stage in late March of 2020 the market stalled for about 6 weeks and then took up where it left off. Monetary (quantitative easing & low interest rates) and fiscal stimulus (direct wage subsidies, rent subsidies etc.) intended to add stability to the uncertain Covid-19 economy also poured "fuel on the fire" of real estate markets already ripe for price increases. It has been a hot market since then. Westside Months of Inventory (MOI*) fell and remained low throughout 2020. It has only begun to creep upwards beginning in May 2021. MOI for detached Westside homes sat at 6.72 months in a "balanced" market position. Both Attached homes and Apartments had MOIs below 5 months in June. Both are in "Seller's" market territory.
Sales volumes hit highs in spring of 2021 not seen since 2016
Vancouver Westside detached house active listing volumes rose significantly in 2021 as sellers tried to capitalize on the hot market.
Interestingly, Westside detached house prices have not reached their 2017 high points yet.
Vancouver Eastside sales prices did reach and exceed their 2017 high points. This split between Westside and Eastside price increases likely reflects the number of local end-user house purchases that took place this spring. The more affordable Eastside saw larger price increases as end-users clambered to buy homes. On the Westside the lower end of the market ($2.5-3.5m) saw significant activity while fewer higher cost homes sold and generally sold for less than their 2016/2107 values. In 2016/2017 the Westside house market was influenced by a significant amount of foreign capital. Implementation of new taxes and modification of existing taxes aimed at curbing the effects of foreign capital appear to be attaining their intended outcomes.
Looking forward it is likely that we will see the super hot market we have been experiencing begin to cool off. Based on past markets though, it is improbable that we will see another significant market decline in the near future.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
Covid-19 has had a dramitic impact on Months of Inventory (MOI*) for Vancouver Westside detached homes. Detached homes' MOI dropped to 4.58 months in March 2020, a low not seen since May 2017. By late March the Coronavirus had been identified as a global pandemic and the closures of public facilities and businesses began. The result to the Vancouver Real Estate market was that MOI rocketed back up to over 12 months in April.
Active listings fell for Detached and Attached homes in both March and April. Apartment active listings rose slightly.
Inversely to Active listings, Sales volumes increased to 106 house sales in March, then plunged to only 37 sales in April. A low not seen for decades. Although Active listing fell significantly they did not fall enough to offset the decline in sales. The result was the steep increase in MOI.
Prices remained relativly stable in April.
The Government of Canada and British Columbia have implemented many programs to provide direct stimulus to the economy and to provide liquidity for financial institutions during the Covid-19 crisis. This includes quantitative easing measures. In the past, when the Federal Reserve has "printed money" through quantitative easing programs (purchasing financials assets by adding credits to the reserve accounts of client banks) the result was increasing prices in the Vancouver real estate market. It remains to be seen if the coming stimulus will prop up prices or not.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
In spite of the Covid-19 virus It has been a very hot market. February 2020 saw months of Inventory (MOI)* drop for all product types. Westside Detached MOI dropped to 8.40 months - the lowest it has been since October 2017. Having said that, it is still in a so called "balanced" market. Attached dropped to 5.21 months - the lowest it has been since July 2018. Apartments dropped to 3.91 though apartment MOI has been near these levels for several months. Both apartments and attached homes are in a "sellers' market. Data is not in yet but March sales volumes for Detached homes have already exceed February's so we will see MOI drop again in March for westside houses.
Listing volumes are at the low end of normal for all product types.
Sales Volumes are also still near the low side of typical.
Average Sale prices fell hard over 2018 and 2019. They are now stabilizing and maybe even beginning to rise.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's HPI index shows the value of a "typical" Westside home.
The market has been quite hot but the Covid-19 virus is only just starting to have an effect on real estate business practices. Open houses have now mostly been canceled and an increasing number of Seller's are holding off listing. Mortgage rates fell significantly last week only to be reversed this week as banks shore up their margins. Looking forward I expect that reduced inventory and pent up demand will continue to make the market relatively hot compared to last year. However, the Covid-19 virus may have other plans. If sales volumes fall enough we may see the market start to decline.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
Months of inventory (MOI)* began 2019 in double digits for detached Vancouver Westside homes and remained elevated for most of the year. In fact, detached homes MOI has been in double digits for 19 of that past 24 months. Attached homes and apartments MOI started lower and apartments crossed into a buyer's market in July. All home types' MOI trended downwards this year.
All home types have had fairly typical active listing volumes this year.
Sales volumes have remained persistently lower than typical for detached homes while apartments and attached homes have had volumes closer to typical. Interestingly, Sales volumes were at their high point for this year in October for apartments. It is unusual to see sales volumes rising so late in the calendar year.
Average sale prices for Westside houses have fallen nearly 35% from their high point of $4,466,841 in October 2017 to $2,943,155 in November 2019. Attached homes fell nearly 30% from $1,792,354 in January 2018 to $1,261,989 in November 2019. Apartments fell 20% from $1,198,693 in January 2018 to $948,538 November 2019. Many factors have contributed to the significant decline not least of which was the dramatic price increases in 2016/2017 themselves. Empty Homes Tax (1%/yr), Vacancy and Speculation Tax (0.5%-2%/yr), increased property tax over progressive thresholds, Foreign Entities tax and the mortgage stress test introduced on January of 2018 have all been contributing factors. The highest priced real estate continues to be the hardest hit and to policy makers' credit, that was one intention for much of the new taxation.
Median sale price per square foot shows us that prices have started upwards and condos are presently more costly per foot than other product types.
It has been a fairly slow year for real estate in Vancouver but prices and sales volumes both seem to have stabilized and begun to increase. Generally, volumes of sales, active listings and sale prices fall in December and we can reasonably expect to see that happen again this year. It will be very interesting to see if the end of year increase in activity of 2019 will be sustained into the Spring market of 2020.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
As anticipated, Months of Inventory (MOI)* likely hit its low points in May and began to rise again in June. Both Westside detached homes and townhomes are in a "buyers' market" at 12.42 months and 8.22 respectively. Apartments at 6.59 months are in a n so called "balanced" market.
Active listings are presently at typical volumes for all home types.
Sales volumes remain low for all home types and especially low compared to the past decade for detached homes. Based on history, May appears likely to be the sales volume high point for 2019.
The Real Estate Board's HPI Price, average sales prices and median price per square foot all continue to trend downwards for Vancouver Westside homes.
Average Sale Prices are down about 30% across the board from their high points in late 2017/early 2018.
The balance of probablities suggests that we will see sales volumes flag for the rest of 2019 and if the present trend continues they may hit new lows point for the past decade. If things trend this way, as I suspect they will, we can expect to see prices continue to fall.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
Months of Inventory (MOI)* dropped for all Vancouver Westside home types in May 2019 indicating a boost to the market. It is pretty typical to see the market at its hottest sometime in the Spring and often it is in May. When we look back later this year, May or June will likely have been the market's high point for 2019 sales volumes.
Sales volumes grew significantly for all home types in May compared with the preceeding two months. That being said, March and April were not great months for sales volumes. We may see another small boost in June but most likely sales volumes will decline through the rest of the summer.
Apartment active listing volumes had remained below typical levels for several years between 2015-2018. They are now back in a more typical range and creating downward price pressure.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's HPI Price (price of a "typical" home) continues to slide downward for all home types.
The best value at the moment is in townhouses on a price per square foot basis.
Average sales prices in May showed a small boost for detached Westside homes.
The quick summary is that May was a pretty good month when compared with the preceding few but it is unlikely to be the herald of a market change. Expect the market to continue to decline. If you know you want to sell over the next couple of years, I would council against "waiting for things to get better" as the wait could be a very long time before we see prices at their previous high points. Intelligent pricing is crucial to selling in a down trending market and has been the key to my success with my 2019 listings. The current market is a boon for buyers: plenty to see, low pressure to choose and things keep on trending down. Interest rates have begun to fall but they have not yet made much of an impact.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
Months of Inventory (MOI)* remained in double digits for detached homes for another month in May. MOI for detached Westside homes has been in double digits for 16 of the last 17 months. Apartments MOI rose in May in large part due to increased active listing volumes. Attached homes were the only home type that saw a reduction in MOI in May.
As the Active Listings chart shows, apartment listings continue to surge in volume. This increased volume of listings has started to send apartment prices downward.
Sales Volumes are at the low end of their typical ranges for all home types.
For a while it seemed like apartments might remain unscathed by the current price downturn in Vancouver's Westside real estate market. Downward trending median sale prices per square foot suggest otherwise.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's HPI index shows steady price declines. Based on current average sale prices we are back where pirces were in 2015 while the HPI Price suggests we are back at 2016 prices. New listings each month continue to outstrip listing expiries and sales so we can expect market conditions to favour declining prices.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
Months of Inventory* (MOI) fell from over 16 months to just over 10 months for detached homes in March. Both attached homes and apartments also saw their MOI fall to 8 and 6.48 respectively.
Apartment active listing volumes continue to rise while listing volumes for attached and detached homes remain fairly stable. Active listings typically peak sometime between May and July. I suspect active listings will reach their zenith later this year as sales volumes remain muted. It is a great time to be a buyer - there is plenty to choose from.
Sales volumes are trending strongly down but increased slightly in March. This seems like good news but bear in mind that March 2019 sales volumes for the Greater Vancouver area were the lowest they have been since 1986!
It is no surprise that prices are continuing to fall. In March, Westside Vancouver townhome prices had the lowest median sale price per sq.ft. at $919 followed by houses at $1008 and apartments at $1022.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's HPI shows a steady decline in prices since the summer of 2017. Based on the protracted elevated MOI numbers, we are likely to see them continue to fall for the next several months.
It would be nice to be able to say that sales volumes and prices are likely to rise but it is just not probable based on the statistics. Smart pricing has been the success in my past couple of listings. With a down trending market, getting sold quickly is key.
*Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market"), 5-8 months of inventory has indicated a flat market with respect to pricing ("Balanced Market") and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure ("Buyer's Market").
Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor.
